Patrick, let me explain the important parts of the paper to you in simple terms.
Patrick
Sure, Huang. I don't know much about economics, so please explain it to me like I'm in high school.
Huang
Okay, Patrick. This paper is about estimating multinomial response models, which basically means predicting choices between different categories. When people make choices, their responses can be conditioned on a specific set of categories they consider. For example, if there are 10 options, someone might only consider 3 of them when making a choice.
Patrick
I see. So instead of assuming that everyone considers all the options, we can assume that they only consider a subset of them. That makes sense.
Putri
I have an idea! We can use this principle to create a business. We can gather data on people's consideration sets and offer them products or services based on those sets. We can make money by targeting their specific preferences!
Huang
Putri, be careful. Misusing this principle for personal gain can have negative consequences. It's important to consider the risks and ethical implications of such a business.
Putri
Oh, Huang. You're always so cautious. I'm sure we can make a lot of money from this idea!
Weeks pass and the scene changes. Putri's business is booming, but she starts facing a series of crises. Lawsuits, accidents, and contract suspensions are causing massive damage.
Putri
Huang, I don't know what to do! Everything I built is falling apart. I should have listened to you.
Huang
Putri, I advised you to consider the risks and consequences. It's important to always have a moral compass when pursuing financial success.
Patrick
Huang, Putri's mistakes are her own. You can't always protect her from herself.
Huang
Patrick, Putri is like a daughter to me. I can't stand by and watch her suffer. I will do whatever it takes to help her resolve this crisis.
Huang
Despite the negative outcome in this story, the paper highlights the significance of understanding multinomial response models with uncertain consideration sets. It provides a framework for estimating and analyzing such models, which has practical applications in various fields.
Title: Scalable Estimation of Multinomial Response Models with Uncertain Consideration Sets Authors: Siddhartha Chib, Kenichi Shimizu View this paper on arXiv
